When to pivot
The sink-cost fallacy means that we don't want to abandon things because of how much we have invested in them already.
It can mean staying in a toxic relationship, working in an unfulfilling career, continuing worthless studies, or pouring more money into a failing business.
We'd feel stupid when we quit because we already spent so much time, money, and energy on these projects like we wasted all that effort for nothing.
So where is the line?
When should we continue, and when should we stop?
I won't try to answer these questions because I don't know.
I understand the concept of sink cost and that most people quit too quickly and too early to see the fruits of their labour.
Maybe that business would take off the next year?
Perhaps the studies everyone said were worthless would lead to an amazing career?
The problem is, at least for me, to know when to pivot and when to keep going.
My rule of thumb is to keep doing it for about a year and then see. I'll continue if I see potential in the project.
If not, I'll stop or change the direction.
Some smaller ideas will be evident even earlier, 6-12 months. Bigger projects take at least 2 years, if not more, to show their potential.
But it's essential to review the progress regularly.
Crunch the numbers and view the figures.
But also ask yourselves.
Do I still believe in it?
Do I still enjoy it?
Or was it what we call in Polish - słomiany zapał - an initial excitement that burnt out quickly afterwards?
It's hard to tell.
PODCAST PRODUCER LATEST
Last week, I worked on the trailers and other assets for the upcoming Casefile Presents show, to be released in a couple of weeks!
We’ve also been working on the new Unfiltered episodes - the interview-style Casefile Presents podcast and the latest Casefile episodes.
We are nearing the end of the year, and a few things need finalising.
YOUTUBE
We’ve released a video on music from The Witcher’s Netflix. It’s not doing too well, so we’ll take time to experiment with the thumbnails and titles.
BOOKS
Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish. Shane is the author of the Farnam Street blog that I follow; this is the first book under his name. It’s a personal development book on biases, fallacies and how to overcome our defaults. I read/heard all of it before, but the book is written well, so I am currently enjoying it.
FUN
Big Mouth. The latest season is out, so this is on the agenda in the current week. Seriously, who comes up with these disgusting jokes? (hilarious, though)
That's it for now. Thanks for reading, and I'll see you (hopefully!) next week!
Mike
https://mikemigas.com/
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